My Oscar™ predictions.


The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King -

Even big movies get the blues. If Star Wars can lose this, so can ROTK. Voters like big movies, but they don't love them. These extravaganzas are technical triumphs but they may not be the Best Picture of the year. Will win many tech awards.

Lost in Translation

My favorite of the lot. It's small, it deals with the human condition and it's about characterization. Sadly, it also does not feature a brave farm wife or a Big Evil, so sometimes even small movies get the blues. I think it has a fighting chance though and it is my pick for Best Picture.

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

The Other Pirate Movie. the Serious Pirate Movie. I really like Peter Weir, he does good work and I heard good things about this. It also features Russell Crowe. Again, it has the Big Technical Triumph problem.

Mystic River

Wasn't this a Kevin Bacon movie or something a few years ago? group of friends, bad history? stuff happens. It has the same thing LIT has going for it, small, actor and character driven. I didn't see it and don't know any one who did. Blah. Loud and Depressing.

Seabiscuit

Was an Oscar™ Contender last summer. I heard it was very uplifting. Go it. Uplifting is Oscar™ bait.

Best Actor:

Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl - I heard he did a great Keith Richards. Pass.
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog - Does the actor really perform if no one is there to see it? Pass, but a dark horse if the Cute Boys cancel each other outs.
Jude Law, Cold Mountain - Cute guy, but it was about the chicks. Pass.
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation - I lurve Him,
Sean Penn, Mystic River -Most likely going to get it, but will the voters notice that screaming, crying and general misery is pretty much Penns default condition. He has played this guy before. I pass on him.

Best Actress:

Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider - 13. I head this was a great performance. Voters like children but we have Ugly actress and Ugly trumps. Pass.
Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give A nice gesture but no. Pass
Samantha Morton, In America - Little tiny movie, little tiny actress. Pass.
Charlize Theron, Monster - Beauty goes ugly. Winner.
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams - Too pretty. Traffic was a better movie. Pass.

Best Supporting Actor:

Alec Baldwin, The Cooler - getting a rep as a loud mouth. It was a good performance from him, but he has played this guy before. Pass.
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams - Did Traffic all ready won for this role. Pass.
Djimon Hounsou, In America - Possible. If folks couldn't or wouldn't vote for Robins.
Tim Robbins, Mystic River - Popular guy, good politics. Might have pissed off a section of the voters though. May be the protest vote.
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai _ Could have killed Tom Cruise but didn't. Voters may hold a grudge. Pass.

Best Supporting Actress:

Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog - Didn't see it, don't know who she is. Pass.
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April - Again, didn't see. Sounds like a chick flick. Pass.
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River - All ready won, but if MR is going to sweep this is where it will start.
Holly Hunter, Thirteen - The kids were great in this. She may get the nod, has won before. I pass.
Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain - Used an accent, possibly her own.

Best Director:

Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation - Loved it. Like Her. My Vote.
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River - Again, if MR sweeps. So will Clint.

Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - didn't get it for the others, might get it now. Directors feel his pain.

Fernando Meirelles, City of God - No chance. So might win.

Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - He and Jackson could cancel each other out.

Best Original Screenplay:

The Barbarian Invasions, Denys Arcand - It's about Health Care. Pass.
Dirty Pretty Things, Steven Knight - Didn't see. Pass
Finding Nemo, Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson and David Reynolds - it's a Cartoon. Pass.
In America, Jim Sheridan & Naomi Sheridan & Kirsten Sheridan - Wasn't this mostly improving? Pass.
Lost in Translation, Sofia Coppola - Yay! My Vote.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

American Splendor, Robert Pulcini & Shari Springer Berman - Small movie, industry fave.
City of God, Braulio Mantovani - Didn't see it. Pass.
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - If it sweeps.
Mystic River, Brian Helgeland - I didn't see it. Comes from a book, may be a better adaption then ROTK.
Seabiscuit, Gary Ross - I didn't see it and this movie didn't get the nominations. It may be a Dark Horse.

Best Animated Feature:

Brother Bear - Didn't see. Pass
Finding Nemo - Didn't see but have the toys.
The Triplets of Belleville - didn't see, but I bet it wins.

Best Foreign-Language Film:

The Barbarian Invasions, Canada - health care. Yawn
Evil, Sweden - Didn't see never heard of it. Possible.
The Twilight Samurai, Japan - Didn't see. Pass.
Twin Sisters, The Netherlands - Sounds depressing. Pass
Zelary, Czech Republic - Celery? Pass.